Posted by Tom Aikins on Sunday, January 29, 2012 Under: Thailand Real Estate News
In middle of 2554, 1317 housing project being sold in the markets of Bangkok and surrounding areas. Of these 955 projects are with above 20 units remained for sale, indicating that the housing market in Bangkok and its perimeter is still very large. The remaining project with more than 20 units left for sale are up to about 100 projects demonstrating the release of many projects which will slow down sales rate.
In the past 6 months, there were 233 new projects opened compared to last year with 448 new projects. It may be inferred that in 2554 the number of projects launched will increase. However, the number of units opened is less than 108,298 units from its previous launch in 2553 with 116,791 units. This implies that in 2554 the project became smaller to prevent risk of potential future projects.
Total value of projects that will occur in 2554 has been higher than in 2553 (319,343 million baht, compared with 302,140 million baht) shows that the housing market in 2554 was very strong. The expected housing market size in 2555 will be approximately 100,000 new units expected to come from the political stability and wealth from country export. The export value in 2552-2553 was up to 17% and expectation in 2553-2554 is to increase at a similar rate (comparing the first 5 months of both year).
When considering the purchase of residential projects in the first half of 2554 will find that there are an increase of 48,825 units, up 15% compared to the first half of 2553 and if projecting for the year 2554 amount will be about 97,650 units, up 2. % if compare annual sales with 2553. This represents the situation of 'Easy buy – easy sell' of the housing market. However, what is worrisome is the recent amount of trading as speculative investment.
In 2555 the number of new housing units will be approximately 100,000 units creating the last 3 years (2553-2555) combined of 330,000 units, or approximately 7.2% of the total 4.56 million homes in Bangkok and surrounding areas in 2555. Later on when all projects are completed in 2556 as the market expected to cause 'bubble burst' from the accumulation of excess supply.
Existing selling supply in the market during mid 2554 totaled 135,598 units, or about 3% of total 4.45 housing units in Bangkok and its vicinity in 2554 which is still not much compared to the early 2540's which account for up to 5%. However, this ratio increased by during a period of several years as an index that indicates that the housing market is entering a state of saturation and 'bubble burst' crisis by the year 2556.
There are approximately 40,707 single house units available, up 7% from the end of 2553 and sold during the first half of 2554 about 8779 units, approximately 17,558 units will be sold in 2554, trend increase by 27%, but outlook still far from reaching the enormous supply.
The house supply available during June 2554 amounted to 40,248 units, down 2% from the end of 2553. In the first half of 2554, 14,580 units were sold with speculation of 29,130 units being sold in 2554, increased by 7%. When compared with the remaining large supply.
For condominiums new units sold slow down a little. Remaining sale supply of 43,496 units or 9% from end of 2553 where the first half of 2554 sales were 22,788 units, with expected sale of about 45,576 units for 2544 decline by 8% which shows that demand partially are slowly declining.
Another interesting point is the unsold unit at the end of 2553 was 66 projects, with 14,420 units, valued at 34,442 million baht. As of mid 2554 the amount increased to 78 projects with 17,750 units, total value of 42,724 million baht. The additional 12 projects that unit sales were stop with total of 3330 units (+23%) with unsold value-added to 8282 million baht (+24%).
The cause of unsold units was 1. 23 projects, not receiving loans from financial institution account for 29%. 2. Unsold / no buyer / unsuitable product 21 projects, 27%. 3. No EIA 10 projects, 13%. 4. Waiting to change price 10 projects, 13%. 5. Change Project concept 5 Project 6%. 6. Location (remote facilities) 6 projects, 8%. 7. Land ownership and road access 3 project, 4%.
For the past six months of 2554, there were 54,401 units newly launched, valued at 161,818 million baht However, only 1% of that was projects other than residential real estate showing that the country is not in a flourishing condition, as in the last 20 years with many commercial real estate being introduce into the market. But currently the growing demands are for housing and speculative investment.
From facts, housing cost less than 2 million baht are about 52%. However 38% of the residential development value of all the homes sold over than 5 million, increasing the average housing price to 2.949 million baht per unit while the previous year an average price was 2.587 million baht. If there were no high price new unit stock recently launched in the second half. The average price of housing in 2554 would be lower than in 2553.
From the obvious trend, operators create smaller projects to reduce risks, lower sales price to allow a greater number of buyers, having a few designs to reduce losses and management costs, etc.
In the first half of 2554 ranking, 15 largest respectable companies by value of the project include:
1. Pruksa Real Estate 32 projects, 10,147 units, valued at 23,799 million baht,
2. Land and House 3,445 units in 10 projects worth 15,506 million baht,
3. Noble Development 1,458 Unit 1 project worth 15,229 million baht,
4. Asian Property Development 1,690 Unit 7 Projects worth 7,791 million baht,
5. Supalai 1,214 units 3 projects worth 6,142 million baht.
Notice that Pruksa Real Estate Company still holds the title with the greatest number of units sold. Produce up to 19% of all sales in the first half of 2554, or 15% of the total value which is very high. It could be said that public listed company took nearly two-thirds of the total market value but about half the number of units.
The project being sold during early December 2553 to June 2554 project with price increase were 23%, price reductions 9% and 68% retain same pricing shows that market conditions did not worsen and continues to be active. The excitement over this period may be the result of speculation. It appears that many units have been traded by floor or buy multiple units. Seller even asks interested buyers if it is for resident or investment which represents an increase in housing investment from the past.
The residential developer’s confidence in second quarter of 2554 has 30 stock market listed companies and 136 unlisted companies. The current situation index adjusted up from the past quarter. When categorize entrepreneurs in to sections, Entrepreneurs Company listed in stock market confidence in current conditions increase from the previous quarter. For the non-listed companies confidence in current conditions also increase from the previous quarter. If considering the confidence in the current state of fragmentation was found that the listed company’s confidence increases but the non-listed company’s confidence increases only a little which reflect market conditions that the major developers still has a major advantage over the smaller.
For the next six months expectations Index rose from last quarter. The Stock Exchange listed companies are expecting an increase from the next 6 months comparing last quarter. Non-listed companies are expecting an increased compared to the last quarter increased. Both the listed and non-listed developers expect more positive outlook in real estate sector especially after election the political situation should be better with policy of different political parties focusing more on the residential market. This will result in the steadily growth in real estate business.
Overall, housing prices rose 1.1%, at least because projects still being sold in this past six months and the best selling is probably sold out. This number may be lower than reality. In another part, for different types of second hand houses all prices have increased respectively in the past 6 months. This is because the increase accordingly to new house price. However, the low price condominium unit (below 700,000 baht) sees price decline because lack of property maintenance, property management, as they should.
1. Single house price from 1-3 million baht, will likely decrease because over supply remaining and some located in poor location.
2. Single house prices over 5 million baht with some costing over 20 million baht which are a specific group. Although there are not many but have a tendency to increase only as order to build house to prevent the risk of over flooding the market.
3. Townhouses cost less than 1 million baht or with total price not exceeding 3 million baht, still have good prospects because it's cheaper and more people can afford it. For the average price will be a replacement for house located far away.
4. Increase in few condominium project group that proposed sale price of more than 5 million baht but in a good location are not hard to sell because it matches high-income groups which has the potential to buy
However, if in 2556 the country's economy is severely slowed down from political reasons or any international competition. It may have an effect in people declining ability to purchase and finance. While there will be an enormous increase in supply in the years 2553-2555 which may cause many bad debts because currently financial institutions are competing to lend greater than or equal to the current house prices by lack of strict control. In this case, real estate crisis may be difficult to avoid in 2556 with a clear excess of supply.
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